1
The US invaded Iran to preserve the petrodollar system: if Russia, China, and Iran built a Eurasian trading bloc using gold, the US dollar would lose its global reserve currency status and the American empire would collapse.
2
Iran is a mountainous fortress of 92 million people using a decentralized Mosaic Strategy with 31 independent provincial military commands, making decapitation strikes and shock-and-awe tactics ineffective unlike the flat-terrain Iraq invasion of 2003.
3
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz (33km wide), through which 20% of world energy passes, and has closed it by threatening ships whose insurers refuse to provide maritime coverage, while collecting $2 million tolls from vessels that do cross.
4
The US National Defense Strategy outlines a four-point plan: secure the Western Hemisphere as a resource fortress, make NATO and East Asian allies fight proxy wars, economically strangle China via the Strait of Malacca, and supercharge the US defense industrial base by converting Ford and GM factories to weapons production.
5
Professor Dien assigns 80-90% probability to World War III, arguing Russia must intervene to save Iran per its Third Rome grand strategy, the IRGC will never accept a ceasefire, and the US seizure of Russian shadow fleet tankers already constitutes acts of war.