← SpaceX
InvestAnswers
How To Retire On SpaceX 🚀 (The Ultimate $18T AI & Space Catalyst) 🤯
⏱ 22 min video · 3 min read8 Jun 2026Worth watching
TL;DR
InvestAnswers presents a detailed Monte Carlo simulation-based price prediction model for SpaceX, arguing that 655-800 shares purchased at the anticipated IPO price of $135 could be worth $1-2 million by 2032. The thesis rests on SpaceX dominating space launch economics, Starlink becoming the global internet carrier, and space-based AI compute rental becoming a multi-trillion dollar business.
Key points
1
Monte Carlo simulation across 10,000 runs yields a base case enterprise value of $18.45 trillion and a median of $20.8 trillion for SpaceX by 2030-2032, implying a base stock price of $1,527
2
87.4% probability that 800 shares purchased at $135 IPO price reaches a $1 million portfolio value by 2030-2032; 655 shares ($88,425 cost) is the base retirement target
3
72% of the modeled enterprise value is driven by AI compute rental, LLMs, and what the creator calls the 'AI stack' - space-based data centers undercutting terrestrial AI costs by ~2028
4
Ron Baron projects Starlink alone at $14 trillion and SpaceX overall at $10-30 trillion; Gene Munster says he would be a 'hard yes' buyer at IPO and expects it to look incredibly cheap in 10 years
5
Polymarket traders are pricing the SpaceX IPO closing market cap at $2.17 trillion on day one, implying a ~23% pop from the $135 IPO price
Actionable insights
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Target 655 shares at $135 IPO price ($88,425 total) as the minimum retirement threshold; add 145 more shares to reach 800 for an 87.4% probability of a $1M outcome by 2032
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The equivalent cost in Bitcoin terms is 1.35 BTC - consider which asset offers faster growth as an allocation decision
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Treat this like the creator's prior '300 shares of Tesla' thesis - a concentrated, long-hold position sized around a specific retirement outcome rather than a diversified play
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Watch for Starship full reusability milestone before IPO as a key confidence signal - Elon Musk has committed to launching Starlink v3 satellites on a fully reusable Starship by end of 2026
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Key risk to the entire model: if Starship fails to achieve full reusability, the enterprise value projections collapse - size position accordingly
Notable quotes
“If you can buy the stock at 135, you have zero probability of not 3Xing at the very least. Zero.”
“The new version of 300 shares of Tesla is 655 shares of SpaceX.”
“Google doesn't have the compute, and they are the compute masters - that shows you how toasted everybody else is out there.”
Worth watching?
✅
Worth watching the full video?
Watch if you want to see the full Monte Carlo model walkthrough and segment-by-segment revenue breakdown - the key numbers and conclusions are all here, but the visual charts and probability distribution graphs add useful context for those sizing a position.
Saved you some time? The creator still deserves a like.
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