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InvestAnswers
📈 Crazy new Bottom Signal? ARMA 20-Yr Lockup, AI Fire & Scarcity update 🥇
⏱ 27 min video · 3 min read11 Jun 2026
TL;DR
InvestAnswers covers a bearish mid-2026 crypto market with Bitcoin at ~$62K, 52% of supply underwater, and a potentially historic bottom signal from Glassnode supply-in-loss data. The video also covers the ARMA 20-year Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, the Claude Fable 5 AI model launch, the SpaceX IPO frenzy, and the broader AI infrastructure race.
Key points
1
A historic bottom signal: Glassnode data shows 10.5 million Bitcoin held at unrealized loss, a peak level that has marked market bottoms in 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2023, and now 2026 every single time.
2
Bitcoin is down 30% in 2026 YTD vs only 6% in 2025, with $4.5 billion in ETF outflows over the last two months — the largest weekly outflow of the year at $1.438 billion.
3
The ARMA bipartisan bill (introduced by Nick Begich and Jared Golden) proposes locking the US government's ~330,000 Bitcoin into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for at least 20 years.
4
Claude Fable 5 (Anthropic's new Mythos-class model) now leads coding benchmarks at 80.7% and software engineering at 77.7%, with a new safety guardrail project called Glass Wing for enterprise partners.
5
Options traders on Deribit still price a Bitcoin recovery to $120K by December 2026, with a floor bet at $60K and a near-certain move to $72K implied by current positioning.
Key arguments
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The Glassnode supply-in-loss peak indicator has called every major Bitcoin bottom since 2012 — with 10.5M BTC now underwater, risk/reward is historically favorable for long-term buyers.
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MicroStrategy NAV premium is at 0.85, meaning you can currently buy Bitcoin exposure through MSTR at a 15% discount to net asset value — a rare dip worth monitoring.
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Options markets imply Bitcoin reaches at least $72K and likely $120K by December 2026, giving investors a data-backed range for positioning over the next 6 months.
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Every $1 billion that flows into Bitcoin ETFs moves the price up ~3%, so watching weekly ETF flow data is a leading indicator for short-term price direction.
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SpaceX is absorbing retail capital that might otherwise flow into crypto — watch for post-IPO reallocation as a potential catalyst for crypto inflows.
Notable quotes
“Every billion dollars that flows out of the ETFs, the price falls by 3%. Every billion dollars that flows into the ETFs, the price goes up by 3%. So we just need buyers.”
“Trillions are pouring into AI infrastructure — 5 trillion over the next 5 years — and Elon is the best hardware builder in the world at exactly the moment that hardware building matters.”
“I can't believe gold has beaten Microsoft in the age of AGI. That is telling you something, my friends.”
Worth watching?
⏭️
Worth watching the full video?
The key data, signals, and arguments are all captured here — only watch the full video if you want the live chart walkthroughs or the community Q&A commentary.
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